Framing a Prediction Problem

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Prediction Problem: Predict whether a power outage will be “Short” (< 6 log-minutes duration) or “Long” (≥ 6 log-minutes duration) based on information available at the time the outage begins.

Problem Type: Binary Classification

Response Variable: DURATION_CLASS (derived from LOG_DURATION)

Evaluation Metric: Accuracy, with additional focus on precision and recall for both classes to ensure balanced performance.

Features Available at “Time of Prediction”:

• Geographic information (state, region)
• Temporal factors (month, season, day of week)
• Cause information (when immediately apparent)
• Demographic characteristics (population, urbanization)
• Climate conditions
• Customer base characteristics

This prediction task is valuable because early classification of outage severity can help utilities allocate appropriate resources and set realistic restoration expectations for customers and emergency services.

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